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The Bull&Bear Bulletin

The Bank of Japan has transitioned its yield cap to serve as a reference rate. The 1% ceiling on 10-year government bond yields is now being described as an "upper limit" instead of a strict target. While the bank remains committed to bond purchases, it remains to be seen if it will effectively prevent yields from surpassing the 1% mark. Concurrently, the yen depreciated to 150 against the dollar, having reached a near-decade low earlier in the day. This movement was prompted because market expectations were for a potential adjustment to the 10-year JGB yield threshold from 1% to 1.25%.

The recent adjustments are seen as fine-tuning efforts to rectify market imbalances resulting from extended yield curve controls. With projections indicating potential overshoots in the upcoming January quarterly outlook, the Bank of Japan might reconsider its negative interest rate strategy. There's a possibility it could transition to a zero-interest rate policy to mitigate further depreciation of the yen and stave off economic stagnation.

However, any immediate, significant shifts in other monetary policy instruments, including the policy rate, appear premature. The BOJ will probably await concrete signs of consistent wage growth, with the forthcoming Shunto wage negotiations being very important.

Only $776 billion debt in 3 months

Attention now goes to the U.S., in anticipation of the Federal Reserve's meeting and the Treasury's bond-selling strategies. The expected borrowing for Q4 stands at $776 billion, a decrease from the earlier $852 billion prediction made in July. Detailed refunding plans will be unveiled on Wednesday, alongside the Fed's policy verdict. The main question now is how this debt will be distributed and will the treasury focus on the longer maturity debt in order to alleviate the pressures from the 10-year bonds. If this happens and the yield on the 10YT stabilises, the equity market might do the same.

Updates from Eurozone and China

  • Eurozone: Upcoming GDP readings and October's CPI figures are anticipated to reflect declining inflation pressures.

  • China: Manufacturing activity in October surprisingly dipped, with the official manufacturing purchasing managers' index registering at 49.5, a drop from September's 50.2. This indicates a contraction, further intensifying the pressure on s the property sector's challenges and economic growth.

Global Gold Demand Insight

The World Gold Council reported a 6% decline in global gold demand (excluding OTC trading) in Q3. This decline was attributed to decreased central bank purchases and reduced demand from jewellers. Nevertheless, the demand for the quarter, at 1,147.5 metric tons, surpassed its five-year average by 8%.

Stock Highlights:

  • Apple: Introduced its new iMac, MacBook Pros, and the M3 chip, emphasising enhanced performance and graphics capabilities. The advanced 3-nanometer manufacturing technology boosts graphics processing efficiency.

  • McDonald's Q3 2023 Earnings:

    • Earnings per share: $3.19 (adjusted) vs. $3 expected

    • Revenue: $6.69 billion vs. $6.58 billion expected

    • Global same-store sales: 8.8% growth

    • U.S. same-store sales: 8.1% growth

    • International same-store sales: 9.5% growth

  • Barclays: Reduced its share price estimate for Mastercard (MA) from $277 to $265.

Key economic events today:

  • Euro zone: GDP and consumer prices at 11:00 CET

  • Canada: GDP 14:30 CET

  • U.S.: Consumer confidence at 15:00 CET

Key Earnings for today:

  • Advanced Micro Devices Inc

  • Pfizer Inc

  • Caterpillar Inc

  • Anheuser-Busch Inbev SA

Wishing you successful trading,

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